Сьогодні Путін і його кліка брутально передає привіт лідерам G7 та НАТО рекордною кількістю ракет по мирним українцям та їх оселях. Раша б’є і буде бити ракетами по Києву, Харкову, Миколаєву, Одесі, Львову, Черкасам… поки не отримає потужну відповідь від збройних сил України. Якщо довгообіцяна Заходом важка зброя не надійшла, якщо такої зброї нема – час її рішуче вимагати у G7 та НАТО! Українське сафарі, яке влаштували в Україні рашисти, можна зупинити лише ракетами у відповідь, сучасними ППО та швидким колапсом Раші завдяки новим потужним економічним санкціям, на які ми так довго чекаємо…

Наша влада і ми всі маємо донести цей меседж Заходу і нагадати, що всі українські ракети у кількості більше 500 шт. ми, на вимогу США, у 90-ті роки задурно віддали Раші. І саме цими ракетами вони зараз нищать наші міста, села та вбивають українців. Нас не влаштовує така війна, адже рашисти воюють не лише з українськими солдатами, паралельно вони воюють зі стариками, жінками й дітьми. Наші втрати серед цивільного населення більші ніж втрати серед військових. Якщо така війна (по суті сафарі) буде тривати роками, що допускається Заходом, то Україна буде повністю зруйнована. Путін цинічно і брутально користується помилковою стратегію Заходу, яку можна назвати «Воювати з Рашою будемо в Україні та українською кров’ю!».

Сьогодні Байден на саміті G7 в Німеччині має зняти його табу наносити удари у відповідь по рашистських точках, кораблях, літаках з яких вони запускають ракети по українським містам, селам та об’єктам інфраструктури, а також надати достатню кількість ракет, які мають дальність влучень не 70 км, а 300 – 500 км. Не менш важливим кроком буде закриття неба силами НАТО над заходом України та постачання сучасних систем ППО для захисту іншої частини України. І ще, заборона на продаж рашистського золота – це добре, але давайте вже запровадимо граничні ціни на нафту і газ. Я пропоную 40 дол на нафту і 150 за газ. Кажуть там хочуть план Маршала для України започаткувати. Я пропоную почати з його фінансового забезпечення, а саме направити на реалізацію цього плану принаймі половину із арештованих 300 млрд дол золотовалютних резервів Раші.

Як відомо 29-30 червня НАТО збереться на саміт у Мадриді, де мають ухвалити нову стратегію Альянсу на наступні 10 років. Треба міняти стратегію НАТО, стратегічна мета цієї організації має бути такою – демілітаризація (обмежити витрати на оборону та безпеку 1% ВВП) та денукліралізація (позбавлення ядерної зброї) Раші. Тактичною ціллю НАТО має стати закінчення війни перемогою України за 100 днів.

P.S. Для західного читача та посольств країн G7 і країн НАТО викладаю нижче план перемоги англійською мовою. Українською мовою ви можете прочитати за посиланням: https://www.facebook.com/…/pfbid02nVV5svxTVbLs1DRv2vKbC…

Ukraine’s Victory Plan in 100 days (UVP100)

Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia means and presupposes:

* Liberation of all Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia;

* Tribunal and punishment for all russian war criminals;

* Reparation payments by the Russian Federation to Ukraine (3 – 5% of GDP for 15 years);

* Demilitarisation (by limiting defence budget to 1% of GDP) and denuclearization of Russia.

The liberation of all Ukrainian territories, or, at least, all territories apart from Crimea and CADR&CALR (Certain areas of Donetsk Region & Certain areas of Luhansk Region) by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) can be considered only as the first stage of the victory. Without fulfilling other conditions of Ukraine’s victory, Russia can resume the war at any time it deems convenient, as it is at war not only with the UAF, but also with Ukrainian civilians. Therefore, the liberation of Ukraine or a ceasefire alone will not stop Russia shelling Ukrainian territory. By doing so, Russia halts the peaceful life of Ukrainians, as well as investment and economic activity in Ukraine. This situation will not be a victory, but rather a defeat for Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Victory Plan stipulates a complete withdrawal of the Russian military from the territory of Ukraine (possibly, apart from CADR & CALR and Crimea), and the end of military activity within 100 days, following diplomatic and organisational processes aimed at the de-occupation of Donbas and Crimea, holding a tribunal, reparation payments by the Russian government, and preparation for its demilitarisation & denuclearization. The above must be completed in 500 days.

Russia is also at war with the rest of the world. By perpetrating artificial shortages of gas, oil and food to raise world prices, the aggressor converts these revenues into the military force that can destroy not only Ukraine, but also Europe and the world order. Therefore, Ukraine’s rapid (within 100 days) victory is not only possible, but also beneficial for the whole world, because it will allow to avoid:

* Complete destruction of critical infrastructure and the collapse of Ukrainian economy;

* Famine in the poorest countries of Africa and Asia;

* Energy (gas) crisis in Europe this winter;

* The inevitable global economic crisis due to the sharp rise in oil prices (as the result of the war) and the destruction of key technological chains;

* US midterm perceptible defeat of Biden’s party in November 2022.

1.

Ukraine’s victory is possible if Russia is defeated on all fronts:

1. Military: Russian troops defeated and thrown out of Ukraine.

2. Civilian: our cities and villages protected by deploying air defence systems, destroying missile launchers on ground and at sea & military airfields together with the military and aircrafts. The targets to be destroyed should only be those that are used by the enemy for shelling Ukrainian territories.

3. Economic: preventing global food shortage can only be achieved by unblocking the Black and Azov Seas. To accomplish this, all Russian warships in the Black Sea should be pushed back to a safe distance or destroyed. It is also necessary to reduce oil and gas prices and decrease the foreign currency earnings of Russia. Halving Russian GDP will collapse its economy and prevent further financing of the war against Ukraine.

Ukraine’s rapid victory strategy is based on the accelerated inflow of military aid for the UAF, accelerated economic pressure on the Russian economy, finance and banking system, accelerated economic sanctions not only against oligarchs but also all Russian citizens, who support Putin’s criminal regime and the war against Ukraine. So, in 100 days, Ukraine can defeat Russia if, first of all, it has the sufficient number of modern weapons along the entire front line and, above all, missiles and air defence systems; secondly, the sanctions against Russia are real and total, and thirdly, it’s citizens are held responsible for the war against Ukraine.

The strategy calls for zero tolerance towards war criminals (including politicians, government officials, Russian propagandists). However, it protects their right to a tribunal, as well as their natural desire to survive and preserve at least minimal wealth.

As for the new military aid for UAF, that will allow winning the war, everything is clear – on all fronts we must have a sufficient number of offensive weapons, that reach the enemy faster, more accurately, and, most importantly, from a greater distance. Obviously, these new weapons must be protected by modern air defence systems.

Civillian front victory (the defence of Ukrainian cities, villages and the infrastructure) strategy calls for retaliatory strikes on the aggressor, regardless of where the missiles, bombs or shells come from. Retaliatory fire should target the enemy on occupied Ukrainian territories, and, after 24-hour warning, on enemy points in any territory that hosts Russian troops and war weapons. This is possible with medium-range missiles. The victory on the civil front implies the need to deploy a global air defence system of Ukraine, especially, in all major cities and places of strategic infrastructure.

Our calculations show that in one or two months it is possible to supply Ukraine with new weapons for victory on the military and civilian fronts, but the economic sanctions are not less important in Ukraine’s victory & defeat of Russia. The economic sanctions should be applied according to Pavlov’s theory about conditional and unconditional reflexes. We propose a simple reflexive mechanism that is based on the influence of war against Ukraine on the behaviour of Putin, most of all, as well as the Kremlin and the entire population of Russia, 90% of whom support this war.

The victory plan stipulates that in addition to the arrest of the Russian gold and international monetary reserves, the following sanctions procedure is in place:

1. Every day of Russia’s war against Ukraine should cost the aggressor $1 billion.

2. Each missile launched at the territory of Ukraine should cost $100 million.

3. Each bomb dropped on Ukraine – $100 million.

4. Every Ukrainian killed by the Russians – $100 million.

These funds should compensate for the direct losses of Ukraine from the Russian aggression (they already exceed $100 billion). So, if Putin wants to think another day about ending the war – minus one billion dollars from the frozen 300 billion dollars and euros of Russia’s gold and international monetary reserves. Putin decides to launch 10 missiles on Odessa, Kyiv or Lviv and drop 10 bombs on Kharkiv or Severodonetsk – minus another $2 billion. These funds are to be made available to the Ukrainian government the day after the Kremlin’s crimes.

It is expected that Putin, the Kremlin and Russia, like Pavlov’s dogs, will acquire new conditioned reflexes towards the war against Ukraine. The war must be made very painful – inflation, deficit, poverty. At first, these new conditioned reflexes will quickly add to their unconditioned reflexes – killing Ukrainians, destroying Ukraine and threatening the world, and in a week or two they will dominate over Russian unconditioned reflexes, pushing Putin to negotiate and surrender.

Unfortunately, these measures are not enough to end the war quickly. The plan of victory is based on the fact that since the formation of the Russian state there has always been a habit to live in poverty and kneel before any government. Moreover, the greater the poverty, the greater the fear and respect for the government, God, the khan or the president, – for them they are identical figures. This conclusion applies not only to common uneducated Russians, but also to the vast majority of Russian liberal-democratic intelligentsia. Therefore, Western sanctions, which lead to a 10% income reduction (10% – 13% is the expected decline of the Russian GDP in 2022, according to both the Russian economists and the World Bank), mean nothing. It is a gift of fate, that is seen by the Kremlin as the impotence of the United States and the European Union, and, moreover, it is seen as silent support & encouragement of the war.

Putin’s behaviour and the Russians’ support of his criminal orders can only be affected by a substantial shortage of money, food and alcohol for the majority of the population. This can only be achieved by a 40-50% decline in the GDP (instead of a 10% decrease) over the span of a few months! Should these measures take years , there will be no effect – the Russians will adapt, and their intellectuals will justify all the economic consequences.

To collapse (40-50% GDP decline) the Russian economy within 2-3 months, it is necessary to immediately introduce:

1. 35% anti-war duty on all Russian exports;

2. 50% anti-war discount on the world prices for russian oil and gas exports (but the final price should not be more than $40 per barrel of oil and $150 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas) with at least half of the difference between the world and actual sales prices should finance UAF, development of the Ukrainian economy and budget deficit of Ukraine. Putin will quickly realise that every barrel of oil and cubic metre of gas sold will make Ukraine stronger. In fact, Russia will finance its own defeat & victory of Ukraine;

3. Nationalisation of at least 80% of the frozen $300 billion of the Russian gold and international monetary reserves, in addition to the frozen assets of the oligarchs and the Kremlin elite (approximately $200 billion) in favour of Ukraine;

4. Russian banks and their branches and affiliate banks abroad disconnected from SWIFT. All foreign correspondent accounts closed and the seized currency (approximately $100 billion) sent as financial help to Ukraine. One correspondent account is allowed, for example, in Gazprombank, through which all settlements on oil and gas exports at special discount prices will be carried out under US control.

As for the collective responsibility of the Russian citizens, 90% of whom support Putin’s criminal regime and the war against Ukraine, the plan proposes a $100 per day limit on cash withdrawals or money transfers to all overseas banks. If Russia does not stop the war and leave all occupied cities, towns and villages of Ukraine within a week, all Russian overseas accounts (including the accounts in the CSTO banks) must be arrested, and, in a week’s time, all the real estate & other assets abroad of the Russian citizens should be arrested as well. If the occupation lasts longer, visas for all Russian citizens in Western countries should be revoked within three weeks.

Exceptions are possible only for public opponents of the dictator’s regime. All Russians, who want to avoid sanctions and stay in the Western countries, must publicly declare that they:

* condemn Putin’s criminal regime;

* support the ending of the war against Ukraine;

* support the return of Crimea and Donbas to Ukraine;

* support reparations to Ukraine;

* support Western values.

Files with such statements must be open to the general public through a website, in the language of the country in which they are located, as well as in English, Ukrainian and Russian. Of the 5-6 million Russians now living in the West, about a half are likely to make such a statement. After an express verification (regarding Ukraine and Western countries sanctions), they would receive a “good russian” passport.

The implementation of the 100 days long Ukraine’s Victory Plan to end the war with Russia is possible and necessary. Moreover, it benefits all countries and the population of Russia, which will have a chance to create a new state (or new states), based on democratic principles and without nuclear weapons and dictators.

PS. It would be more correct to call this plan – the Strategic Plan for the rapid victory of Ukraine and the West in the war with Russia. Without the support of the plan from Zelensky, Biden, Johnson, and, hopefully, also Scholz and Macron, this plan will not work… So, the fate of Ukraine and the lives of thousands of Ukrainians is now in the hands of not only the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also in the hands of the Western politicians. There is hope that they will become true statesmen and save the world…

I would like to note that this plan was born as a generalisation of the opinions and views of the rational and courageous Ukrainians and our allies from all over the world. I invite you to become its co-author or supporter. Translate UVP100 into various languages ​​and distribute it among the people, embassies and government officials of our allies.

Prof. Oleksandr Savchenko, Rector of International Institute of Business (Kyiv, Ukraine)